Covid Situation Report: Apr 18, 2024
Update on Covid providing information on positivity and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction
This weekly Covid Situation report was originally posted on my substack ‘Seeing the Forest for the Trees’ where I publish articles on Covid and other topics. You can access my substack at the following link.
This week's report is shorter than usual as not all of the data that was previously included is now available on a weekly basis. Where relevant, changes to the content and data sources have been noted.
Summary
Once again this week’s news is positive, as the Covid metrics indicate that the winter surge is over. Nonetheless, Covid has not vanished entirely, with stable, though comparatively low, numbers of hospital admissions still being reported.
There has been a small rise in the Covid positivity rate this week , while the rates for Flu and other respiratory viruses have continued to fall. Nevertheless, the positivity rates for all these viruses remain relatively low.
Weekly hospital admission rates for Covid remained unchanged but continued to fall for Flu.
Over the past week, a few regions have seen a small rise in hospital admissions due to Covid, yet their rates continue to be low.
The Spring 2024 booster campaign for people aged 75 years and over, those in care homes, and individuals aged 6 months and over with a weakened immune system has now started. Details of how to get a Spring Covid vaccine are here.
It is always important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation increases significantly with age and for those who are immunocompromised. Also ‘Long Covid’ remains a risk for all. Therefore, it is prudent to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England
The chart below displays the positivity rates, for the primary respiratory illnesses in England, including Flu, Covid, RSV, and Rhinovirus. It is important to understand that positivity rates differ from the prevalence figures reported in the Winter Infection Survey and should not be compared.
Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on individuals exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Case positivity represents the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid (or other respiratory illnesses) of the total number of individuals tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a random sample of the population.
There was a small rise in the Covid positivity rate to 4.2% this week, yet it remains at a low level. The positivity rate for flu decreased for the fifth week in a row to 2.7% and is now well below that of Covid. Additionally, the rates for RSV and Rhinovirus have continued to fall.
The following chart shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.
Weekly hospital admission rates for Covid and the Flu remain low, with Covid admissions stable and Flu admissions on a downward trend.
The next panel chart in this section shows Covid hospital admissions per 100,000 people by region.
While there have been minor increases in hospital admissions for Covid in certain areas, such as the West Midlands, the overall admission rate continues to be low and stable across the regions.
Hover your cursor over one of the chart lines to display the admission rates for all regions.
The final panel chart shows Covid hospital admissions per 100,000 people by age. Each panel represents one age group and the title and lines are colour coded. The grey lines show all of the other age groups to provide context.
All age groups have seen significant reductions from the winter peak and have now stabilised at relatively low levels.
The charts also show the age difference for hospital admissions with almost all admissions being over 75 years old. This was an important factor considered by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) who are recommending that only over 75s and the clinically vulnerable will be eligible for the Spring 2024 Covid booster campaign
It's important to note that while testing policies have been updated from April 1, 2024, the guidelines for testing patients showing Covid symptoms or when a positive result would change the patient's treatment remained unchanged. Consequently, the number of Covid hospital admissions continues to be a dependable indicator of the virus's prevalence in the community for the period shown in these charts.
Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy
This section gives a more detailed examination of the most recent daily Covid data for hospitals in England.
NHS England stopped the weekly publication of data used to create these dashboards from April 4, 2024. As a result, the next update of the daily Covid data for hospitals in England will be on May 9, 2024.
In conclusion
Despite the reduced level of data, the available information indicates that Covid levels have remained relatively low and stable.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Thanks very much for this update
Helpful to have regular IS updates on vaccine development, especially developments related to; 1. Intramuscular Universal Variant independent 2. Mucosal (nasal) vaccination