What does the latest data tell us about Long Covid?

Long Covid remains a risk for individuals infected with Covid. This post provides a summary of the most recent data from the UK's 2023 Winter Infection Study, published in April 2024.

Introduction

This article report was originally posted on my substack ‘Seeing the Forest for the Trees’ where I publish articles on Covid and other topics. You can access my substack at the following link.

Long Covid poses a significant health concern for many people in the UK. Currently, there are no specific diagnostic tests solely for Long Covid; therefore, the available data is derived from surveys in which individuals report their experiences.

The UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) has carried out a number Covid Infection Surveys to identify the scale of Covid infections in the general population. These surveys cover a large representative sample of the population and include questions to gauge the prevalence of Long Covid.

The latest ONS report on Long Covid, using data from the Winter Infection Survey, was published on 25 April 2024, and this article provides a more detailed analysis of the accompanying data.

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Overview

The Winter Coronavirus Infection Survey of a representative cross-section of the population was conducted from November 2023 to March 2024 in England and Scotland. Participants were required to take a Lateral Flow Test and report their results. Additionally, they completed a questionnaire to determine if they identified as having Long Covid, which is characterized by symptoms persisting for more than four weeks post-Covid infection and not attributable to other causes.

According to the survey, an estimated 2 million individuals (3.3% of the population) in England and Scotland reported experiencing long COVID from February 6 to March 7, 2024. This figure is higher than the 2.9% of the population estimated at the conclusion of the UK Covid Infection Survey in March 2023. However, the surveys differ slightly, which means its difficult to compare the results.

The following chart shows the percent of the population in each age group who report suffering from Long Covid of any duration.

The characteristics of those most likely to have self-reported Long Covid follows a similar trend to that previously reported in March 2023. During the four week period ending Mar 7, 2024, the highest rate of self-reported long COVID was greatest in people aged 45 to 64 years - an estimated 780,000 individuals. The lowest rates were in the youngest and oldest age groups.

The next chart shows the percent of those who self-reported having Long Covid by the length of time since their symptoms started.

Whilst some people are reporting that their Long Covid only started recently, over a half said they had suffered from Long Covid for over two years - an estimated 670,000 individuals!

Long Covid remains a serious problem for the ‘Long Haulers’ and confirms the importance of efforts to development reliable diagnostics and effective treatments.

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Risk Factors

Covid does not affect all groups equally, and the same is true for Long Covid. This section examines some of the risk factors by looking at the rates of Long Covid for different groups in society. The analysis follows the World Health Organization's definition of Long Covid, which requires symptoms to persist for more than 12 weeks.

The first chart looks at the percent reporting Long Covid for over 12 weeks by deprivation.

Previous surveys found that there was a marked rise in the incidence of Long Covid among individuals living in the most deprived areas. The latest data shows that this inequality persists and has indeed intensified.

The following chart shows the percent reporting Long Covid by ethnicity.

Despite the data's greater uncertainty, a distinct inequality gradient exists, with Mixed and Asian ethnic groups experiencing the highest incidence of Long Covid, while Black, African, Caribbean, or Black British groups have the lowest incidence levels.

The final chart in this section looks at the percent reporting Long Covid by employment status.

The chart indicates that the highest incidence of Long Covid occurs among individuals who are inactive and not seeking employment. Recent findings from the Labour Force Survey revealed a significant rise in 'economic inactivity' following Covid, with the figure now exceeding 2 million people. Various reasons have been proposed for this increase, with Long Covid cited as a contributing factor. The high number of Long Covid cases reported by inactive individuals suggests that Long Covid may be a significant factor in the increased economic inactivity within the workforce.

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Impact of Long Covid on Individuals

Individuals with Long Covid may suffer from a range of symptoms such as severe fatigue, difficulty breathing, memory and concentration issues often referred to as "brain fog", along with joint pain and muscle aches. The Winter Infection Survey asked individuals who reported suffering from Long Covid how these symptoms impact on their activity levels.

The following chart gives the percent of people who reported they had Long Covid who said they were not impacted at all, impacted a little, or impacted a lot.

Most people reported that they were impacted by Long Covid with 19% (equivalent to just over 380,000 individuals) stating they were impacted a lot.

The next chart illustrates the varying effects of Long Covid on individuals' activities depending on the duration of their condition.

The chart shows that the reported impact of Long Covid on activity levels is highest for those who have suffered the longest. Worryingly one in five of those who have reported suffering for longer than two years say their activity levels are limited a lot.

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In conclusion

The latest data from the ONS shows that Long Covid remains a health concern, affecting 2 million people across England and Scotland in March 2024.

Long Covid continues to be a significant issue for 'Long Haulers' who have endured symptoms for more than two years, underscoring the necessity of developing dependable diagnostic tests and effective treatments.

As always, any comments or questions are welcome.