Covid Situation Report: Jun 27, 2024
Update on Covid providing information on positivity and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction
This weekly Covid Situation report was originally posted on my substack ‘Seeing the Forest for the Trees’ where I publish articles on Covid and other topics. You can access my substack at the following link.
This report is part of a weekly series that summarises the Covid situation in England and its regions. Not all of the data previously included in the situation update is now available on a weekly basis. Where relevant, changes to the content and data sources have been noted.
The UKHSA report, which offers data on weekly positivity and hospital admissions, was not released this week. Consequently, the information for this article is confined to case rates from the UKHSA Covid dashboard. Additionally, the report includes updates on Covid deaths and the most recent vaccination data.
Following guidance from the UK Statistics Authority to avoid publishing statistics on national polling days, there will be no Covid data published on 4 July. Publishing will be delayed by one day so the next situation report will be issued on Friday 5 July.
Summary.
The available data indicates that Covid levels in England have continued to increase this week, albeit they remain at relatively low levels.
Although the UKHSA Covid-19 surveillance report was not published this week, the daily Covid case rates have been updated on the UK Covid dashboard.
The daily Covid case rate for England has risen and now exceeds the levels recorded during the minor wave in May.
Daily case rates have increased across all regions in the past two weeks, with the North West and North East experiencing the most significant rises.
In the two weeks leading up to Jun 14, there has been a slight increase in deaths due to Covid, but overall, the numbers remain lower than those of the previous year.
The Spring 2024 booster campaign in England will end on June 30 and to date 4.1 million doses have been administered, reaching 55% of the eligible population. Vaccination coverage for the immunosuppressed remains low.
You can check to see if you are eligible and book a booster at the following link.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid infection increases significantly with age and for those immunocompromised. Also Long Covid remains a risk for all as shown by the recent ONS report. Therefore, it is prudent to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England
The UKHSA National influenza and COVID-19 surveillance report has moved to a condensed summer report and is now released every two weeks. Consequently, there is no updated information on Covid test positivity or weekly hospital admissions available to report. The next update will be published on Friday, July 5.
Covid case rates
Although data on weekly test positivity and hospital admissions were not published this week, updated information on daily case rates were reported on the UKHSA Covid dashboard. Since most testing is now conducted on patients in hospitals or under a doctor's care, these rates closely correspond to admissions and test positivity.
The first chart in this section compares the daily case rate per 100,000 individuals, shown in red, with prevalence reported from the Winter Infection Survey, depicted in blue. As prevalence is considered the ‘gold-standard’ measure of Covid levels in the general population this provides a good indication of how well case rates measure Covid levels.
The chart confirms that the increase in Covid case rates has continued and are higher than in May, albeit still at relatively low levels.
The next panel chart in this section shows Covid rates for the regions of England. Hover your cursor over one of the chart lines to display the admission rates for all regions.
The panel charts indicate that case rates have increased across all regions in the past two weeks, with the North West and North East experiencing the most significant rises.
Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy
This section gives a more detailed examination of the most recent daily Covid data for hospitals in England.
NHS England stopped the weekly publication of data used to create these dashboards from April 4, 2024 and have moved to a monthly publication schedule. The next update will be on July 11, 2024 covering May Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy.
Covid Deaths in England and Wales
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly reports on the number of deaths recorded on death certificates that are due to Covid or where Covid was involved. The data available is for both England and Wales. The following chart compares the number of deaths due to Covid in England and Wales by the week of registration for 2023-24 with the previous year. The chart does not include deaths where Covid was identified as a contributing cause on the death certificate.
The weekly death toll from Covid in 2023/24 has markedly declined from the previous year, and despite minor recent rises, it continues to be relatively low. For the week ending June 14, 2024, there were 101 deaths directly due to Covid, and another 152 deaths where Covid was a contributing factor, totalling 253 Covid-associated deaths. This number is comparable to the same week in 2023, which recorded 263 deaths related to Covid.
Spring 2024 Booster Campaign
The Spring 2024 booster campaign started on April 15 and will close on June 30. Considering the decline in vaccine efficacy after 15 weeks, a successful Spring 2024 booster campaign is important to protect the most vulnerable populations.
The following chart displays the weekly number of doses administered during the booster campaigns for England to date. The Spring campaigns are represented in green, the Autumn campaigns in brown, and doses administered outside of these campaigns are depicted in grey.
The chart shows the difference between the Spring and Autumn campaigns, each with its unique eligibility requirements. The Spring booster campaign is exclusively for individuals aged 75 and above, residents of care homes, and those with compromised immune systems. According to NHS England, approximately 7.3 million people qualify for the Spring campaign in England.
Since the start of the Spring 2024 booster campaign in England, more than 4.1 million doses have been administered. With just one week left in the campaign, this means that 55% of the eligible population has been vaccinated.
Recent progress is slowing, with 119,317 doses administered last week compared to 136,224 the week before. The chart below illustrates the weekly coverage for the three eligible cohorts in England since the start of the campaign.
The chart clearly shows that although good progress is being made for those in care homes and 75 years and older, vulnerable individuals with compromised immune systems are still falling behind on vaccine coverage.
Just a reminder that the Spring 2023 booster campaign closes at the end of June.
From now until the 30 June, there are thousands of appointments available every day across the country, including at pharmacies and GP practices. Some areas also offer convenient walk-in options, with a full list of walk-in sites available online.
You can check to see if you are eligible and book a booster at the following link.
In conclusion
Despite the reduced level of data now published, the available information indicates that Covid levels have increased in the past two weeks, particularly in the north of England.
Deaths dues to Covid have increased in the two weeks ending Jun 14 nu remain at relatively low levels.
The Spring 2024 booster campaign will end on Jun 30, with just over 4.1 million doses administered so far. As with previous campaigns, the immunosuppressed remain under vaccinated.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
I tried to get a Covid vaccination in Scotland, I rang every pharmcy across the Highlands and Islands, no one, not one, is doing vaccines 'until autumn' and even then only Pfizer, and maybe not even then. And then only in Aberdeen. It was suggested I ask my GP to prescribe a dose privately. Flat out refusal. Apparently they 'don't do that sort of thing'. In the end I found an appointment (only Pfizer) in Edinburgh but before I could get there my partner brought Covid home from a Conference. He said he had been careful, wore a mask etc, but the conference had nothing, no air filters, nothing...
I'm wiped out, I'm sure you all know the symptoms, with the added fun of my diabetes being trashed :(
Even when we try to do 'you do you' it seems we cannot win.
And now Covid is everywhere, in the hospitals, my family in Suffolk, suddenly this week, everyone seems affected, so I think the next reports will show rising levels and I think I read Scotland is going to increase surveillance to weekly and in Worcester they are back to wearing baggy blues in the hospitals?
Will people ever get sick of being sick for the sake of 'normailty'?
Doo you have any knowledge about what mRNA vaccine we should hope for in the Autumn? Should we hope it is against the latest strain such as KP.3 or would it be better if it were against the parent strain LN. 1 so as to protect more widely?