Covid Situation Report: Jul 11, 2024
Update on Covid providing information on positivity and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction
This weekly Covid Situation report was originally posted on my substack ‘Seeing the Forest for the Trees’ where I publish articles on Covid and other topics. You can access my substack at the following link.
A reminder that not all of the data previously included in the situation report is now available on a weekly basis. Where relevant, changes to the content and data sources have been noted.
This week's report covers case rates from the UKHSA Covid dashboard as well as daily Covid hospital admissions for the month of June. The report also provides the latest vaccination status across the Home Nations as the Spring 2024 booster campaign comes to an end.
Summary.
This week's data presents a mixed picture, yet it indicates that Covid levels may have peaked, with hospital admissions and case rates beginning to stabilize in most regions. The current figures exceed those from the May wave but are still below the peaks experienced in the winter of 2023.
Hospital admissions for Covid saw a significant increase in the final two weeks of June, but have since stabilised at a rate higher than May's figures, though still below the peak experienced in the winter of 2023.
The daily case rates show a mixed picture with some regions remaining unchanged or falling slightly. However, there are signs of a resurgence in the northern regions of England.
Although this wave is most likely over, this is an important reminder that Covid is not yet a seasonal disease, and we are likely to experience further waves as new variants emerge and immunity levels wane.
The Spring 2024 booster campaign closed on June 30. Across England, Scotland and Wales coverage for each of the eligible groups was lower than achieved at the end of the two 2023 booster campaigns. Once again, coverage was lowest for the immunosuppressed.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid infection increases significantly with age and for those immunocompromised. Also Long Covid remains a risk for all as shown by the recent ONS report. Therefore, it is prudent to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
For those who are interested, I recently published an article covering the ONS data on Long Covid in more detail which can be found here. Also a comprehensive review of the evidence in support of wearing masks is available here.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England
The UKHSA National influenza and COVID-19 surveillance report has moved to a condensed summer report and is now released every two weeks. Consequently, there is no updated information on Covid test positivity or weekly hospital admissions available to report. The next update will be published on Friday, July 18.
Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy
From April 2024, NHS England moved from a weekly to a monthly publication schedule for daily Covid data in hospitals. This section reflects the latest data released on July 11, encompassing the month of June. Consequently, it excludes the most recent week's data covered in the following section. Nonetheless, this data confirms the increase in Covid levels seen in June and shows the impact of Covid on hospitals.
The following chart illustrates the daily number of Covid hospital admissions, including patients diagnosed with Covid after admission, for the year 2024 up to the end of June in comparison with the full year data for 2023.
The chart indicates that, for the first time in 2024, June's hospital admissions for Covid surpassed those of the previous year. By the end of June 2024, the daily hospital admissions was just over 400 per day, which is in contrast to the nearly 600 per day experienced at the peak of the winter wave in early January.
The next panel chart shows the hospital admission rate per 100,000 individuals by NHS region. Hover your cursor over one of the chart lines to display the admission rates for all regions.
The panel chart confirms that the North East and Yorkshire together with the North West region had the highest admission rates at the end of June.
The final chart in this section shows a comparison of the daily number of beds occupied by Covid patients in 2024 compared with 2023. The number of beds occupied by Covid patients includes both those being treated primarily for Covid and those ‘with’ Covid as a secondary infection. As a guide, about 25% of patients occupying these beds were being treated primarily for Covid in March 2024.
Hospital bed occupancy data for Covid patients reflects the trends in Covid hospital admissions. As of the end of June, nearly 3,000 beds were occupied by Covid patients, which is roughly 3% of the total available beds and marks a significant increase from June 2023. Moreover, Covid-related staff absences stood at 2,000, accounting for 3.3% of all absences, indicating that Covid continues to pose challenges for hospitals.
In summary, the daily Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy figures corroborate the increase in Covid levels observed last week in the UKHSA weekly hospital admissions data.
Covid case rates
The UKHSA Covid dashboard continues to publish daily case rates on a weekly basis. As the majority of testing now occurs in hospitals or under medical supervision, these rates should be closely aligned with hospital admissions and the positivity rate of tests.
The first panel chart in this section tests that assumption by comparing the daily case rate per 100,000 individuals, shown in red, with daily hospital admissions for Covid reported by NHS England, depicted in blue.
The chart shows that while Covid case rates generally mirror the pattern of Covid hospital admissions, there is a significant disparity in the scale of changes. The grey shaded areas on each chart highlights the difference between the peak of the winter wave and the recent peak in June. Case rates experienced a 64% decrease, whereas hospital admissions saw a reduction of only 32% between the winter and June peaks. This implies that although case rates are useful for indicating the overall trend of Covid in the population, they do not accurately reflect the extent of change. The likely reason for this is that testing levels have decreased by about a half since January.
The next panel chart in this section shows Covid rates for the regions of England. Hover your cursor over one of the chart lines to display the admission rates for all regions.
The panel charts indicate that in many regions, the recent rise in case rates has either stabilized or begun to decline. However, there are signs of a resurgence in some regions in the past week. Notably, the North East region, which has the highest rate, is experiencing an uptick following last week's decrease.
Spring 2024 Booster Campaign
The Spring 2024 booster campaign started on April 15 and closed at the end of June. Considering the decline in vaccine efficacy after 15 weeks, a successful Spring 2024 booster campaign is important to protect the most vulnerable populations. The Spring booster campaigns are exclusively for individuals aged 75 and above, residents of care homes, and those with compromised immune systems.
The following table summarises the final status published for England, Scotland and Wales. It compares the latest available coverage of the Spring 2024 booster campaign by eligible group to the final coverage of the 2023 booster campaigns for England, Scotland and Wales. Unfortunately, care home coverage is not available for the 2023 booster campaigns for England and for the immunosuppressed in Wales.
The table shows that across all three home nations the Spring 2024 coverage for each of the eligible groups was lower than that achieved at the end of the two 2023 booster campaigns. Once again, coverage was lowest for the immunosuppressed.
In conclusion
Although the amount of data currently being published has decreased, the information that is available suggests that the recent rise in Covid levels has not yet ended, even though they remain lower than the peaks seen in Winter 2023.
The Spring 2024 vaccination campaign has now closed, with coverage lower than previous booster campaigns across all eligible groups.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
I had my third episode of covid from 7 to 14 July 2024. I’ve always been vaccinated in the programs and would have been had it been offered in the spring of 2024. I think it a great mistake not to offer vaccination to anyone who wants it or who GPs recommended might have it. Thanks for continuing your great work.
On July 9, Fiona wrote:
If someone gets a private booster now, presumably they can also have an autumn booster 3 months later? Or can it be even sooner than that, like with the second jabs in 2021, which were as early as 3 weeks after the first?
Would you or Sheena be able to comment on this?