Covid Situation Report: Apr 11, 2024
Update on Covid providing information on prevalence and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.
Introduction
This weekly Covid Situation report was originally posted on my substack ‘Seeing the Forest for the Trees’ where I publish articles on Covid and other topics. You can access my substack at the following link.
As noted in last week's post, not all of the data used to compile this report is now published weekly. Consequently, there have been changes to the content and data sources for some of the regular charts, which I will detail where applicable.
Although testing policies were updated from April 1, the guidelines for testing patients showing Covid symptoms or when a positive result would change the patient's treatment remained unchanged. This means that the number of Covid hospital admissions continues to be a dependable indicator of the virus's prevalence in the community.
Finally, the report provides an update on the Spring 2024 booster campaign, sickness absence in hospitals, and the latest data on deaths from Covid in England and Wales
Summary
Once again the news this week remains positive, as the majority of Covid metrics suggest that the winter surge has concluded. However, Covid continues to persist with a stable yet relatively low number of hospital admissions still being recorded.
This week, the positivity rate for Covid has seen a slight increase, while the rate for the Flu has decreased, with both remaining at low levels.
Weekly hospital admission rates for Covid remained unchanged but continued to fall for Flu.
Over the past week, a few regions have seen a small rise in hospital admissions due to Covid, yet their rates continue to be low.
The number of hospital staff absences due to Covid has significantly decreased this year compared to last year.
The Spring 2024 booster campaign is due to start from April 15 for people aged 75 years and over, those in care homes, and individuals aged 6 months and over with a weakened immune system.
The number of deaths in 2023/24 has significantly decreased compared to the previous year and continues to decline to relatively low levels.
It is always important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation increases significantly with age and for those who are immunocompromised. Therefore, it is prudent to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation whenever possible.
Status of main respiratory diseases in England
The chart below displays the positivity rates, which are the percentages of tests taken that are positive, for the primary respiratory illnesses in England, including Flu, Covid, RSV, and Rhinovirus.
This week saw a slight increase in the positivity rate for Covid to 4.1% but it remains at a very low level. The positivity rate for Flu fell for the fourth consecutive week to 3.3% and is now below Covid levels. The rates for RSV and Rhinovirus also fell slightly.
The following chart shows hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.
Weekly hospital admission rates for Covid and Flu remain low with Covid admissions remaining stable and flu admissions falling very slightly.
The positivity rates and weekly hospital admissions for Flu and Covid have fallen to relatively low levels. It is more likely that Covid-like symptoms indicate a Rhinovirus infection rather than Covid.
The final chart in this section shows Covid hospital admissions per 100,000 people by region.
While there have been minor increases in hospital admissions for Covid in certain areas, such as the South East, the overall admission rate continues to be low across the regions.
Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy
This section gives a more detailed examination of the most recent daily Covid data for hospitals in England.
NHS England has stopped the weekly publication of data used to create these dashboards, resulting in the UKHSA Data Dashboard, which I had intended to use, also discontinuing its weekly data updates. As a result, the next update of the daily Covid data for hospitals in England will be on May 9, 2024.
NHS Staff Sickness
Covid has significantly affected hospital staff absences due to sickness in England. The chart below shows a comparison of staff absences due to Covid from April to March in the years 2022-23 and 2023-24.
In April 2022, there were over 35,000 absences attributed to Covid, accounting for 40% of all sickness-related absences.
NHS England ceased asymptomatic testing for staff in August 2022. Mandatory testing continued for staff working primarily in wards treating severely immunocompromised individuals, although broader testing was recommended during periods of higher risk. Consequently, comparisons between years can only be made for the months August to March.
During this period absences due to Covid have been much lower in 2023-24 than last year. By the end of March 2024 there were only 978 Covid absences reported in 2024 which is just 2% of all sickness-related absences. In contrast, March 2023 saw 6,821 Covid absences, accounting for 11% of the total absences.
The chart below illustrates the total number of hospital staff absences due to illness over the same periods, offering context to the Covid absence trends. Overall, absences are generally lower in 2023-24, yet they remain notably high during the Autumn and Winter months.
Spring 2024 Covid Booster Campaign
Covid is more serious in older people and in people with certain underlying health conditions. For these reasons, people aged 75 years and over, those in care homes, and those aged 6 months and over with a weakened immune system are being offered a spring dose of vaccine.
The campaign starts with visits to older adult care homes and eligible housebound patients from 15 April 2024. For all other eligible cohorts, vaccinations should start by 22 April 2024 and end on 30 June 2024.
Full details of those eligible for the Spring 2024 Booster can be found here with further details of the campaign dates here.
Covid Deaths in England and Wales
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly reports on the number of deaths recorded on death certificates that are due to Covid or where Covid was involved. The data available is for both England and Wales. The following chart compares the number of deaths due to Covid in England and Wales by the week of registration for 2023-24 with the previous year.
The number of weekly deaths in 2023/24 is much less than in the previous year and continue to fall to relatively low levels.
In conclusion
This week NHS England stopped publishing the weekly updates on daily Covid hospital activity and has moved to reporting this data monthly. However, UKHSA are continuing to provide weekly updates.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Thank you for this update and the advocacy work you do. I would offer that the severe Covid outcomes definition of 2020 should be updated in light of the knowledge we now have of long term severe outcomes (Post-Covid Condition or Long Covid) that are not limited to the elderly, those with underlying health conditions or who are immune compromised. A child or anyone who develops a new heart condition or diabetes as a result of Covid has a severe outcome, just like one who becomes disabled from the post-viral syndrome of Covid.
Do test kits identify current variants? I was ill in january/february, thought it was covid, but kept testing negative. A dr told me the tests no longer work. Is that correct?